Jamaica’s Economy Faces Severe Contraction After Hurricane Melissa

Jamaica is bracing for a significant economic downturn as the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, is expected to result in a contraction of between 11% and 13% in the final quarter of 2025. This decline, announced by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), marks the sharpest quarterly economic shrinkage the country has experienced since the COVID-19 pandemic.

During a hybrid press briefing held on November 25, 2025, Dr. Wayne Henry, PIOJ’s Director General, highlighted that prior to the hurricane’s impact, Jamaica was on a trajectory for growth. The economy had shown a promising growth rate of 3.1% in the first half of the fiscal year, with expectations for this momentum to continue into the latter half.

The devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa has severely impacted key sectors of Jamaica’s economy. The storm inflicted extensive damage on critical infrastructure, including homes, power grids, roads, and water systems. Agriculture, a vital part of the Jamaican economy, has been particularly hard hit. Dr. Henry pointed out that the seven parishes most affected account for 74% of the land utilized for domestic crop production, along with significant livestock and export crop farming. The losses include access roads, farmland, livestock, and fishing gear, which are crucial for the livelihoods of many Jamaicans.

Looking ahead, Dr. Henry cautioned that the October to December 2025 period could represent Jamaica’s worst economic performance since the April to June 2020 slump caused by the pandemic. Despite the grim outlook for the current fiscal year, which is expected to contract between 3% and 6%, there is a glimmer of hope for recovery. Dr. Henry expressed optimism about the economy’s rebound, stating, “The economy is expected to return to growth in the October to December 2026 quarter,” as reconstruction efforts gain momentum.

The projections from the PIOJ underline the profound impact natural disasters can have on national economies, particularly in small island nations like Jamaica. As the country begins to assess the full extent of the damage and initiate recovery plans, the focus will be on rebuilding and strengthening the resilience of its economy against future storms.