Thanksgiving Restaurant Reservations Surge as Grocery Costs Rise

This Thanksgiving, more people are opting to dine out rather than prepare traditional meals at home, leading to a significant rise in restaurant reservations. Data from OpenTable, a platform that covers over 60,000 establishments, reveals that reservations for the holiday are up by 13% compared to last year. This trend comes as many consumers face rising grocery prices, making dining out an attractive alternative.

The increase in grocery costs has been attributed to various factors, including tariffs, immigration policies, and extreme weather events that impact food supply chains. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices surged in August at the fastest rate seen in three years, continuing to rise in September. Although some may hope that dining out will save money, restaurant prices are rising even more rapidly than overall inflation. In fact, the cost of eating out has increased more significantly than grocery prices, according to BLS data.

Changing Consumer Preferences

While Thanksgiving dinner in a restaurant may not be as cost-effective as some believe, there are indications of a more favorable pricing environment. The National Restaurant Association reported that menu prices in September experienced their slowest monthly increase since February 2024. This could entice consumers to choose restaurants, particularly since several chains are promoting prix fixe menus designed to offer value.

In addition to dining out, many consumers are also turning to meal delivery services. Olo, a catering platform, reported an almost 100% increase in orders this year compared to last year. Olo’s CEO, Noah Glass, noted that high grocery prices have made ordering in a “perfect combination of quality, convenience, and value” for many families.

Grocery Prices and Meal Deals

Interestingly, the average cost of preparing a Thanksgiving dinner for ten has decreased for the third consecutive year, falling by 5% to $5.52 per person, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Nevertheless, the organization points out that prices have not yet returned to pre-2022 levels. A key factor in this decline is the reduced cost of turkey, the traditional centerpiece of the Thanksgiving feast.

Despite wholesale turkey prices rising from last year, grocery chains are offering competitive meal deals to attract price-sensitive customers. Retailers such as Aldi, Amazon, Target, and Walmart are advertising affordability in their Thanksgiving meal packages. For instance, Walmart’s offering this year is 25% cheaper than last year’s, but it includes fewer items—15 this year compared to 21 previously. Additionally, a larger proportion of items from Walmart’s “Great Value” store brand are included, indicating a shift towards more budget-friendly options.

As Thanksgiving approaches, consumers are faced with a complex decision: whether to dine out, order in, or prepare meals at home. With rising costs influencing preferences, the holiday dining landscape is shifting, reflecting broader economic pressures and changing consumer habits.