California Poll Shows 56% Support for Prop. 50 Ahead of Vote

UPDATE: A new poll released just last night reveals that 56% of likely voters in California support Proposition 50, indicating a strong momentum ahead of the critical vote on November 4, 2023. This proposal, also known as the Election Rigging Response Act, seeks to replace the state’s independently drawn congressional districts with maps that could significantly disadvantage Republican representatives.

The Public Policy Institute of California conducted the survey from October 7 to 14, with 943 likely voters participating. Notably, 43% of respondents indicated they plan to vote against the measure. As the election date approaches, the growing support for Prop. 50 aligns with a substantial advantage in fundraising for proponents, who are outspending their opponents by a ratio of two to one.

In an unusual move, California Governor Gavin Newsom, a prominent advocate for the proposition, recently urged supporters to halt further donations, asserting that campaign goals have been met. In an email to supporters, he stated, “We have hit our budget goals and raised what we need in order to pass Proposition 50. You can stop donating.”

Conversely, the “No on Prop. 50” campaign, backed by billionaire Charles Munger Jr., continues to rally voters to oppose the measure. Campaign spokesperson Amy Thoma Tan acknowledged the legitimacy of the polling results but emphasized their financial disadvantage, stating, “We’re being outspent two-to-one.” Tan’s team is actively working to persuade the millions of voters who have yet to submit their ballots.

Munger, a long-time advocate for independent redistricting, has funded advertisements claiming that Prop. 50 would reverse progress by undermining the work of the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission, which is designed to create impartial political boundaries. The emphasis from Newsom and other Democrats is that the temporary use of gerrymandered maps is a necessary strategy to enhance Democratic representation.

The heightened interest surrounding Prop. 50 is reflected in the poll results, where 68% of likely voters stated that the outcome of the special election is “very important.” Mark Baldassare, the survey director at the policy institute, noted that this level of engagement is unprecedented in his two decades of polling California voters on ballot measures.

The implications of Prop. 50 extend beyond state lines. Should it pass, the measure could play a pivotal role in helping Democrats regain control of the U.S. House during the 2026 midterm elections and counteract aspects of former President Donald Trump’s agenda. However, the ultimate outcome remains uncertain as Republicans in various states also strategize to redraw districts favorably for their party.

As voters prepare to cast their ballots, the urgency around Proposition 50 continues to escalate. The stakes are high, and the eyes of the nation are on California as this critical decision approaches. Stay tuned for more updates as developments unfold.